But if there is a chance one in a thousend, that your opponent will drop, then you gain with a double, XG2 said. And neilkaz said, there must be a lot of cube errors by the colonel. Why not pushing on a possible drop?
The argument is: Suppose doubling now is slightly wrong against a player who makes no cube errors. White has made at least one cube error in this game, so maybe he'll make another, so maybe if Blue doubles now White might make that mistake now?
How likely is that, compared to later cube decisions? I don't think we need to assume very much about how well White plays to think it very unlikely that White would pass here:
The score is: White 5, Blue 5. Blue on roll (match to 7 points)
| White | 16 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 122 |
Position ID: OgEAwLYdgAAOAA Match ID: cAngAFAAKAAE | |
White's looking at 16 missing numbers -- 45%. No White with a notion of his 2-away Crawford match equity -- about 32% -- should make a mistake. But if Blue does not double now, what then?
(1) Should White double here?
White on roll
| White | 36 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 115 |
Position ID: 23YAEjA6AAAQAA Match ID: MAHgAFAAKAAE | |
(2) Should White double here?
White on roll
| White | 39 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 116 |
Position ID: 23YQADScAAAQAA Match ID: MAHgAFAAKAAE | |
(3) Should White take here?
Blue on roll.
| White | 28 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 116 |
Position ID: nAACwLYdBAANAA Match ID: cAngAFAAKAAE | |
(4) Or here?
Blue on roll.
| White | 27 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 115 |
Position ID: OgAIwLYdgAQMAA Match ID: cAngAFAAKAAE | |
(5) Should White take here?
Blue on roll
| White | 36 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 115 |
Position ID: OgAA0LYdgAQMAA Match ID: cAngAFAAKAAE | |
(6) Or here?
Blue on roll
| White | 39 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 116 |
Position ID: nAAA0LYdBAANAA Match ID: cAngAFAAKAAE | |
(7) Might White even double here, when 15 numbers leave a shot?
White on roll.
| White | 16 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 114 |
Position ID: 23YQADE6AQAAAA Match ID: MAHgAFAAKAAE | |
Perhaps not. But Blue doubled in the position below, in the final match of a side event at the Swedish Open this year:
The score (after 5 games) is: White 3, Blue 2. Blue on roll. (match to 7 points)
| White | 120 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 24 |
Position ID: 7LYlADD+FgAAAA Match ID: cAngADAAEAAE | |
