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XGR+ RO
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: XGR+ RO (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Sunday, 28 August 2011, at 7:58 p.m.
These are variations on some of the positions that occurred in the actual game. I have rolled them out under the assumption that White did not double in the original position. Mike
Blue hit the forward blot with a 2-1.
Can White double from the bar?
White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 397 point match pip: 119
score: 5
Blue is Player 1XGID=aBBBBC-------A------a-cAB-:0:0:-1:00:5:5:0:7:10 White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 35.707% (G:11.891% B:3.942%) 34.524% (G:12.557% B:4.991%) Opponent Winning Chances: 64.293% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 65.476% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) Cubeless Equities -0.0695 -0.8726 Cubeful Equities No double: -0.7348 ±0.0080 (-0.7428..-0.7267) Double/Take: -0.8726 (-0.1378) ±0.0162 (-0.8888..-0.8564) Double/Pass: +1.0000 (+1.7348) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.9% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2
If White dances, Blue will lose his market.
With Blue shooting a double shot at White's second blot, the pass is hard to miss.
White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 397 point match pip: 119
score: 5
Blue is Player 1XGID=aBBBBC-------A------a-cAB-:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 70.273% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 71.522% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) Opponent Winning Chances: 29.727% (G:8.120% B:2.391%) 28.478% (G:8.869% B:2.920%) Cubeless Equities +0.2578 +1.2135 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.8498 (-0.1502) ±0.0076 (+0.8422..+0.8574) Double/Take: +1.2135 (+0.2135) ±0.0150 (+1.1984..+1.2285) Double/Pass: +1.0000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 54.7 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2
In the game, White entered with 6-3, but could not safety his second blot.
Blue has a great double. This is the take White might have blundered.
White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 307 point match pip: 121
score: 5
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BBBBCa------A--------caBA:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 54.114% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 54.085% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) Opponent Winning Chances: 45.886% (G:19.649% B:6.670%) 45.915% (G:20.404% B:7.007%) Cubeless Equities -0.2752 +0.2303 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.1491 (-0.0812) ±0.0160 (+0.1331..+0.1651) Double/Take: +0.2303 ±0.0231 (+0.2072..+0.2534) Double/Pass: +1.0000 (+0.7697) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2
Blue missed hitting from the bar when he rolled 3-1. White covered up with a 5-1.
From here, White rolled well, and was never hit again.
White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 247 point match pip: 117
score: 5
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BBBBC-----a-A-------AbbB-:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 16.331% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 18.749% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) Opponent Winning Chances: 83.669% (G:38.857% B:18.382%) 81.251% (G:43.493% B:19.714%) Cubeless Equities -1.3802 -1.7620 Cubeful Equities No double: -1.5900 ±0.0096 (-1.5996..-1.5804) Double/Take: -1.7620 (-0.1720) ±0.0100 (-1.7720..-1.7520) Double/Pass: +1.0000 (+2.5900) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.9% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 4 minutes 24 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2
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