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XGR+ RO

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 28 August 2011, at 7:58 p.m.

In Response To: XGR+ RO (Daniel Murphy)

These are variations on some of the positions that occurred in the actual game. I have rolled them out under the assumption that White did not double in the original position.

Mike


Blue hit the forward blot with a 2-1.
Can White double from the bar?





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 39
7 point match
pip: 119
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBC-------A------a-cAB-:0:0:-1:00:5:5:0:7:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 35.707% (G:11.891% B:3.942%) 34.524% (G:12.557% B:4.991%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 64.293% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 65.476% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities -0.0695 -0.8726
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.7348±0.0080 (-0.7428..-0.7267)
Double/Take:-0.8726 (-0.1378)±0.0162 (-0.8888..-0.8564)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+1.7348)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2


If White dances, Blue will lose his market.
With Blue shooting a double shot at White's second blot, the pass is hard to miss.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 39
7 point match
pip: 119
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBC-------A------a-cAB-:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.273% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 71.522% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.727% (G:8.120% B:2.391%) 28.478% (G:8.869% B:2.920%)
Cubeless Equities +0.2578 +1.2135
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8498 (-0.1502)±0.0076 (+0.8422..+0.8574)
Double/Take:+1.2135 (+0.2135)±0.0150 (+1.1984..+1.2285)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 54.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2


In the game, White entered with 6-3, but could not safety his second blot.
Blue has a great double. This is the take White might have blundered.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 30
7 point match
pip: 121
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBCa------A--------caBA:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.114% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 54.085% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.886% (G:19.649% B:6.670%) 45.915% (G:20.404% B:7.007%)
Cubeless Equities -0.2752 +0.2303
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.1491 (-0.0812)±0.0160 (+0.1331..+0.1651)
Double/Take:+0.2303±0.0231 (+0.2072..+0.2534)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.7697)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2


Blue missed hitting from the bar when he rolled 3-1. White covered up with a 5-1.
From here, White rolled well, and was never hit again.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 24
7 point match
pip: 117
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBC-----a-A-------AbbB-:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 16.331% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 18.749% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 83.669% (G:38.857% B:18.382%) 81.251% (G:43.493% B:19.714%)
Cubeless Equities -1.3802 -1.7620
Cubeful Equities
No double:-1.5900±0.0096 (-1.5996..-1.5804)
Double/Take:-1.7620 (-0.1720)±0.0100 (-1.7720..-1.7520)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+2.5900)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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