[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OLM Su 8/28/11

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 29 August 2011, at 6:53 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 8/28/11 (Jason Lee)

Take Point (NNN, assuming no gammons or backgammons)

Pass: 14a-7a, MWC = 19.67%
Take/Lose: 14a-6a, MWC = 15.33%
Take/Win: 12a-8a, MWC = 31%

Risk = 19.67% - 15.33% = 4.33%
Reward = 31% - 19.67% = 11.33%

Take point = risk/(risk + reward) = 4.33 / (4.33 + 11.33) = 4.33 / 15.67 = approx. 27.6%

Throw in some gammons, and it goes even higher.

White has 11 checkers in the zone, a fine anchor, and bad intent! In addition, he has 1, 4 and 6 as hitting numbers, and 3 and 5 to cover.

My vote: Pass

Mike

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.