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BGonline.org Forums
Estimate Winning Chances #2
Posted By: Joe Russell In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances #2 (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 30 August 2011, at 1:24 p.m.
To hit twice looks obvious. You leave 12 returns.
You will be able to double him out on the 12 numbers he enters with one man, not hitting. You will be able to play on the four double dances. When he enters with both, not hitting, 8 numbers, you will have a double(other than 3-3) and he a take. You should win about 70% of those games, with some gammons. Summing, when you are not hit. You win 12 + 4 +(.7* 8)=21.6 games.When hit, 12 rolls, there are two main classes of being hit: entering both and entering one.
When he hits, entering one, 4 rolls, you will be a solid favorite if you come in and a solid underdog if you dance. I would call this about a wash, 2 wins.
When he enters with both, hitting, there are three sub-classes: 2-2; 4-4; 4-(1,2,3)
After 2-2, you will be a huge dog and will need to enter both men to survive. Give yourself .05 wins here.
After 4-4 you will lose when you dance and will be a smallish dog when you come in. Give yourself .2 wins here.
After 4-(1,2,3), six numbers, if you dance you will lose. If you come in, 7 or 8 numbers hit from the roof and leave you a sizable favorite. The other 12 or 13 numbers leave you a small dog. Give yourself 1.8 here. wins here.
Summing the wins after being hit: 2+.5+.2+1.8=4.5 Adding to the wins when not hit 4.5 +21.6 =26.1 wins.
26/36 = ~72%
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