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BQ: safe vs bold?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 30 August 2011, at 2:20 p.m.

In Response To: BQ: safe vs bold? (leobueno)

This is a good problem. Magriel's criteria indicate bold play, but the question is how bold. I looked at 12/8, but like Christian, I would have played 10/1 here, not because I was afraid of getting hit on the 8pt, but because I wanted to keep my 12pt checker as a guard.

However, before trying too hard to explain the bot rollout, I would collect more data. First, since Blue missed a huge double before the roll, you should roll it out with the cube turned. Missed doubles often skew the checker play.

Then, assuming 12/8 still comes out on top, let's formulate a theory for why it's better than 10/1. Perhaps it's because the 12pt checker is more useful as an attacker than as a guard? How can we vary the position to test this theory? Maybe move the 10pt blot back to the 16pt?

In general, instead of just posting here and asking for an explanation (which is a fine thing to do—I like your problems!), try answering them yourself by (1) formulating a theory; (2) using your theory to predict what the bot will say when you vary the position in a certain way; (3) testing your prediction using 4-ply analysis; (4) modifying your theory if necessary, and repeating the process.

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