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BGonline.org Forums
BQ: safe vs bold?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: BQ: safe vs bold? (leobueno)
Date: Tuesday, 30 August 2011, at 3:32 p.m.
You have a safe play, 12/7 10/6. It doesn't look very good. 25/36 times Opp will run away (6-1 would make the 5 point instead). On the other nine rolls you have max 20 hitting numbers and 4 ways to make the 4 point.
Then you have 10/1 (or 10/5 6/2). And 10/5 12/8. Compare them.
10/5 12/8 gets hit 11 times, but 10/1 gets hit 5 times, so the difference is only 6. 10/1 guards against some numbers escaping, but only 4/36 that don't include a 4: 5-1 and 5-2, since again 6-1 will make the 5 point.
I'd think of the important swing numbers after 10/5 12/8 as being 4-1, 4-2 and 4-3, because (1) 4-4 hits either way (2) with 4-5 and 4-6 Opp would run away and be the favorite anyway (3) after 5-1 and 5-2 you're a dog to hit, and (4) wWith large numbers Opp will just run away, for which 10/5 12/8 should be a little better, since all spares are in play and aiming at the 4 point, but the difference probably isn't much.
So, after 10/1, on 4-1, 4-2, and 4-3, instead of having a shot at the escaping checker, you're on the bar. That's not all bad, since you might use that checker for defense. But you'd rather not have that checker sent back, so let's say these are bad sequences for you.
But there are nine other big swing numbers -- the nine rolls that your miniprime blocks. After 10/1 you have 23 hitting numbers and just 3 ways to make the 4 point. After 10/5 12/8, you have 32 hitting numbers and 15 ways to make the 4 point. I didn't try to say exactly how bad getting hit was, and I'm not going to try to say exactly how big the swing is on these nine rolls is, either, but it looks huge! -- especially with the cube still centered.
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