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A close decision?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 30 August 2011, at 9:34 p.m.

In Response To: A close decision? (Bob Koca)

I almost mentioned second-chance hits, but supposed that they would be few and outweighed by the chance of not winning after a hit. You're right that they could be closely in balance.

Since you mentioned it, with some quick calculations now I put second chance hits at under ~1.4%, about 1/3 after 6-6 6-3 3-6, about 1/3 after 2-1 1-1, and about 1/3 after the numbers that leave a single shot now. Those calcs assumed that Blue would be able to hold his 17 point, which isn't true.

On the other hand, some even quicker rollouts tell me that Blue's GWC after a hit is lower than one might expect -- about ~90% for what must be several of Blue's hitting numbers, ~91.5% with the best number hitting on the 14 point (6-6) and only ~86% with the worst number (2-1).

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