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A Newbie's Neil's Numbers alternative

Posted By: Gregg Cattanach
Date: Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 12:30 p.m.

In Response To: A Newbie's Neil's Numbers alternative (Kevin Whyte)

An algebraic formula that works reasonably well is the 'Turner Formula'.

Leader's ME = (24/T + 3) * D + 50.

Where T is the number of points the trailer has to go and D is the difference in the two scores.

This doesn't work at the Crawford scores and very well 2-away; you need to memorize those. This also breaks down beyond 11-away.

(To avoid some confusion I memorized the Crawford scores in the 'down' series: 32,25,19,16,11,9,7,6,4,3,2,2,2,1 and the 2-away scores in the 'up' series': 60,67,74,80,84,87,90,92,94,95,96,97,98.)

You'll see that the (24/T + 3) part approximates Neil's numbers in a single formula, but Neil's (New) Numbers are more accurate.

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