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BGonline.org Forums
51S-53P-62S-53S-11
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: 51S-53P-62S-53S-11 (Timothy Chow)
Date: Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 5:51 p.m.
I have long rollouts on all three bots for the third roll position-type 52D-xxx-11 when White has split with a 3 and her builder is on her midpoint, 11pt, 9pt, 8pt and 7pt (xxx = 21U, 32S, 43Z, 53S and 63Z, respectively). It is easiest to remember that Blue should prime with N (Near, 8/7(2) 6/5(2)) in all five positions.
51S-53P-62S-53S-11
52D-43Z-11
In that set of five positions, Blue's maximum incentive to play P (Point on the 4pt, 6/4*(2)) exists when White's builder is on her 9pt, as shown on the right. This is a useful reference position for which playing N and P is basically a toss-up: [P N1] <62, [N=P] /15, [P N9] ~31.
In the position posted by Tim (on the left), White lacks the 9pt checker (which is both a builder and a blot to go after), and another argument against hitting is to avoid giving White efficient 6s while on the roof (e.g., to hit on or cover the 7pt). OTOH, it is a great idea in general to hit in order to protect one's blots; Blue has three of them. On balance, I would go with P, though I'm not sure.
If P is indeed best or even close for money, then P must be right at 𣯕 (the score Tim mentioned is posted at rec.games, though I don't know the site).
Nack
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