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OLM 9/1/11

Posted By: Fabrice Liardet
Date: Friday, 2 September 2011, at 8:01 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 9/1/11 (Jason Lee)

The position is not easy to assess, but the score makes it absolutely obvious that we are good enough to double. We have got a 72% gammonless cash point and a 0.7 gammon value on a 4 cube. The recubes are negligible and the lost gammons are very much deprecated. That last observation means that if we fail to make the 5 point on our roll, we can hit loose without fear, and will still be hot favourites to get the 5 point. Then if XG doesn't enter quickly we have good chances to win forward with a probable gammon, and if it does enter quickly we will probably have some edge in the priming game.

So I would even expect a pass, and my only slight doubt would be whether we are too good to double. But I very much doubt it with such volatility on the next exchange.

Cube.

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