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Bear Off: win now vs. win later

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 3 September 2011, at 5:25 p.m.

In Response To: Bear Off: win now vs. win later (maxim)

First let's look at the gammon value. Losing a single puts us at 4a3a for 43% ME, winning a single puts us at 2a5a for 75% ME, and winning a gammon puts us at 100% ME. Gammon value is (100-75)/(75-43) ~ 0.76, which is elevated.

The only way to leave no shots is 5/1 4/1, which bears no checkers, wastes pips, and forces us to blot next turn with 66 65 64 63 62 55 54 53 52 44 42, or 19 rolls. If we're willing to leave a direct shot, the candidates seem to be 6/1 6/2*, bearing no checkers but putting White on the bar, and 4/off 3/off, bearing two checkers and not only volunteering a direct shot but possibly leaving a persistent blot on the 3pt.

The gammon race is fairly close. White needs at least 29 pips to bear off (if we don't hit), which is about 4 rolls, and if we bear off two checkers now then we'll have 8 checkers left.

I think it's worth taking some risks to win a gammon here. Even if White hits, we still have life after death and might win. I'll try bearing two with 4/off 3/off.

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