11 and 9 gets hit twice as often, but also wins twice as often after getting hit, so that evens out nicely.
Meanwhile after 8 you leave a horror 66 and 44 (55 not that great either). And it does look harder to bring home from there also.
         
 
          
 | | White is XG Roller
score: 16
pip: 148 | | 17 point match | pip: 66
score: 16
Blue is Michael |
|
| XGID=aDCBbBB-----A--bAbcc--b---:0:0:1:53:16:16:0:17:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/11 12/9 | eq: +0.719 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.93% (G:70.52% B:0.25%)
14.07% (G:0.72% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.716...+0.721) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 2.* | Rollout1 | 16/8 | eq: +0.668 (-0.051) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 83.38% (G:67.48% B:0.28%)
16.62% (G:1.23% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.665...+0.670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 16/13 12/7 | eq: +0.635 (-0.084) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 81.74% (G:65.67% B:0.17%)
18.26% (G:1.11% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.632...+0.638) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Even if the hits were equally costly it would still be right to pay off the extra shot.
| | White is Player 2
score: 16
pip: 121 | | 17 point match | pip: 66
score: 16
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aDCBbBB-----A---A-bbbbbb--:0:0:1:53:16:16:0:17:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/11 12/9 | eq: +0.629 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 81.43% (G:40.60% B:0.15%)
18.57% (G:1.00% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.626...+0.631) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/8 | eq: +0.593 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.66% (G:39.74% B:0.16%)
20.34% (G:1.28% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.591...+0.595) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross