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Calculating winning probability - job for BobKoca

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 1:24 p.m.

In Response To: Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal (Casper van der Tak)

Good question, I am reacting to:

"Sure you can win one game against Kit Woolsey, Neil Kazaross or Nick Ballard, you can supposedly win a match till 11 or 13 points too, but I suppose that you have not more than 3% chances to win against these guys money in 8-10 games!"

So I am looking at what percentage of 10-games money sessions I am winning against GNU. So far, after 2 sessions, the score is 2-0 for the good guys ;-)


My opinion is that good players have LESS advantage if we count number of won games, rather than number of won points.


If we assume/know that difference of 100 Elo points is about 0,2 ppg difference, I'm sure that BobKoca can easily calculate (we others not so easily) if players with 100 or 200 Elo points lower rating can win more *points* than their better opponent more or less than 3% times in those 8-10 games.

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