[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Calculating winning probability - job for BobKoca

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 1:43 p.m.

In Response To: Calculating winning probability - job for BobKoca (mtuhtan)

You'd need variance per game, which I read somewhere is about 2-2.5. Then you assume a normal distribution and off you go. If you assume 0.2ppg difference, then the underdog winning over 10 games has a t-statistic of about 0.3, so it should happen quite often.

Warning - stats a bit rusty if you could not tell ;-)

If it would be about total number of points won, I'd also have an issue - in that case loose cubers would have an edge in the sense that they would more often end up in the top 8 out of 32 than a tight cuber (they'd also be more likely to end up in the bottom 8).

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.