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Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 4:16 p.m.

In Response To: Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal (Casper van der Tak)

Casper and anyone else interested in one's chances in a short (8 or 10 game) money session -- which against a world class player are much larger than what Garal supposed to be "not more than 3% chances to win against these guys money in 8-10 games!":

http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+513

http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+709

Summary:

Average points per game ("ppg")= 2.3 with variance 8.3 in Eide's sample; Wong uses 9.

Eide's formula to find the 96% confidence interval (+/-2 standard deviations) for the result of a money game session of N games between two equally good players:

0 +/- 5*sqrt(N) points

If players are unequal with one player having an advantage measured in ppg, substitute "ppg*N" for "0".

Thus for N = 10, Eide's formula gives 0 +/- 15.81 points for equal players, 1 +/- 15.81 points and -1 +/- 15.81 points when the advantage is 0.1 ppg.

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