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Calculating winning probability - job for BobKoca

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 9:01 p.m.

In Response To: Calculating winning probability - job for BobKoca (Casper van der Tak)

That is an o.k. approach but 10 games is not enough for long run approximations you are making. Also would need to suppose that players are playing regular normal games and not playing with the goal of winning the session.

Suppose you play XG 10 money games with the goal of winning the session. It is quite likely with a strategy of starting out losing each game and jacking up the cube. If you lose in the next game jack up the cube in the next game to an even higher value. Once you win just lose single games from then on.

Messages In This Thread

• Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
  Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 2:12 p.m.
  • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 3:09 p.m.
    • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
      garyo -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 5:09 p.m.
      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
        garyo -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 5:11 p.m.
        • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
          Chiva Tafazzoli -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 8:50 p.m.
      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
        Julia Hayward -- Monday, 5 September 2011, at 9:57 a.m.
        • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
          Jakob Garal -- Monday, 5 September 2011, at 11:18 a.m.
          • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
            Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 5 September 2011, at 12:21 p.m.
            • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
              Jakob Garal -- Monday, 5 September 2011, at 11:29 p.m.
              • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 9:09 a.m.
                • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                  Jakob Garal -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 11:59 a.m.
                  • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 12:19 p.m.
                    • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                      Jakob Garal -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 2:12 p.m.
                      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 3:18 p.m.
                      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 3:27 p.m.
                • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                  Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 4:16 p.m.
                  • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 4:46 p.m.
                  • Probability to win a unlimited session of 10 games
                    eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 5:31 p.m.
                    • Probability to win a unlimited session of 10 games
                      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 6:47 p.m.
                      • Probability to win a unlimited session of 10 games
                        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 6:52 p.m.
            • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 11:38 a.m.
              • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 12:16 p.m.
                • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                  mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 12:35 p.m.
                  • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 12:52 p.m.
                    • Calculating winning probability - job for BobKoca
                      mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 1:24 p.m.
                      • Calculating winning probability - job for BobKoca
                        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 1:43 p.m.
                        • Calculating winning probability - job for BobKoca
                          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 9:01 p.m.
                    • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                      Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 9 September 2011, at 6:29 p.m.
          • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
            Julia Hayward -- Monday, 5 September 2011, at 1:16 p.m.
            • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
              Jakob Garal -- Monday, 5 September 2011, at 11:20 p.m.
  • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 3:47 p.m.
    • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
      Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 8:03 p.m.
      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
        Chiva Tafazzoli -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 8:50 p.m.
        • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
          Steve Mellen -- Thursday, 1 September 2011, at 9:54 a.m.
      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 11:27 p.m.
    • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
      Jakob Garal -- Sunday, 4 September 2011, at 9:01 p.m.
      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
        Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 4 September 2011, at 9:07 p.m.
        • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
          Jakob Garal -- Sunday, 4 September 2011, at 11:05 p.m.
      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 4 September 2011, at 10:28 p.m.
        • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
          Jakob Garal -- Sunday, 4 September 2011, at 10:49 p.m.
      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
        Jason Lee -- Monday, 5 September 2011, at 1:11 a.m.
      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 5 September 2011, at 8:12 p.m.
        • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
          Jakob Garal -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 12:07 a.m.
          • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
            Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 12:15 a.m.
            • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
              Jakob Garal -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 8:18 a.m.
          • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
            Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 5:40 p.m.
            • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
              Jakob Garal -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 8:23 p.m.
              • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 9:03 p.m.
                • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                  Jakob Garal -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 10:22 p.m.
                  • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 September 2011, at 10:59 p.m.
                    • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
                      Jakob Garal -- Wednesday, 7 September 2011, at 10:52 a.m.
  • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
    Stick -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 4:29 p.m.
    • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 7:45 p.m.
      • +1 don't sell cucumbers to the cucumber farmer.
        svilo -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 9:24 p.m.
  • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
    Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 5:17 p.m.
    • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
      Chiva Tafazzoli -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 8:48 p.m.
      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
        Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 9:09 p.m.
  • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
    Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 11:34 p.m.
    • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
      Chiva Tafazzoli -- Thursday, 1 September 2011, at 7:58 a.m.
      • Tournament Format and Prize Sharing By Dr. Garal
        Stick -- Thursday, 1 September 2011, at 8:24 a.m.