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Blundering early vs. blundering late: UBK's example revisited

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 8 September 2011, at 5:21 p.m.

In Response To: Blundering early vs. blundering late: UBK's example revisited (Stick)

You wrote:

You made it sound like one person definitely blunders away a game early in the match and the other player does so if they get to dmp. I'm guessing from context what you meant is that the other player always blunders away a game later in the match at Crawford for example.

UBK gave the results of a single match. We can't say for sure what would happen if UBK's players played each other repeatedly, because UBK didn't give enough details.

So, I made up Nervous Nellie and Choking Charlie, trying to capture the spirit of UBK's example. Choking Charlie blunders away a game at Crawford (you shouldn't have had to "guess from context" because I said this explicitly).

Your intuition is telling you that a more natural way to generalize UBK's example is to imagine DMP Donald, who blunders at DMP only. That is a reasonable generalization, and then of course DMP Donald wouldn't blunder one game per match. We could analyze DMP Donald and come to similar conclusions, but I thought that Choking Charlie captured the spirit of UBK's example better because Choking Charlie and Nervous Nellie win equally often in the long run, whereas DMP Donald will win more often than Nervous Nellie in the long run. (Donald will blunder away more ME when he does blunder, but usually he won't blunder at all because usually the match won't get to DMP.)

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