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Blundering early vs. blundering late: UBK's example revisited

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 9 September 2011, at 6:10 p.m.

In Response To: Blundering early vs. blundering late: UBK's example revisited (Timothy Chow)

It is tricky. Back in undergrad we had a problem about probability of team A winning a 7 game series versus team B with a fixed win chance per game. The solution the grader had involved looking at the chances of WWWW, of WLWWW etc. I did it imagining all 7 games were played and found P(win at least 4). It was marked wrong with a note that the series would be over as soon as four games were played. My protest to the grader about probabiistic equivalance was not understood. When I went to the prof though I got the points back and congratulations on a good method.

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