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GridGammon dice analysis--My Standing Bet

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Saturday, 10 September 2011, at 6:50 a.m.

In Response To: GridGammon dice analysis (leobueno)

For years I have tired of hearing people claim that on line dice, and the dice in bots such as eXtremeGammon are not random...that for some mysterious reason, they consistently try to hurt you and help themselves. I know several people that say they can predict, with amazing regularity, what the next roll will be --generally they think of what their worst roll is, predict that, and when it happens, which it does one out of every 18 or 36 times, they say, "See, I told you!"

Since these people will rarely listen to logic or reason, to these people, and anyone else who believes this baloney, I offer this bet: any time you want to log on to a server with me, or use webex so we can look at the rolls together, and you think you can predict the next roll, I will be happy to bet you, using the actual odds of that roll coming up, that you are wrong, and of course, you have to give me 5% extra when I win. That should be nothing for someone who is sure the dice are rigged and predictable. If you want to select three or four possible rolls, that's fine, as long as we bet using the appropriate odds and I get 5%.

My prediction is that in the long run, I will come out 5% ahead...it's a prediction because none of the loud-mouth complainers and criers have yet to take me up on this offer.

Anyone interested...you know where to find me.

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