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OLM Fr 09/09/11

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 12:06 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Fr 09/09/11 (Jason Lee)

4/2 should lead to more backgammons and gammons. How much more often does it lose? 1/12 of the time we roll 44, 55, or 66, then about 1/3 of the time we get hit, and then we still have to lose after having borne off 5 checkers. (The cube won't be coming back any time soon since our take point is about 8%.) I'll guess we lose about 1.5% extra games by playing 4/2. Our gammon value is about 0.7 so we'd have to win about 2% extra gammons. I don't have a good way to estimate gammons here, but based on the rollout of the last position, it seems that bearing off an extra checker won us about 2% extra gammons (if we take the pseudocubeless numbers at face value). Playing 4/2 versus 3/1 might save us an effective pip but seems considerably less than bearing off an extra checker. So the extra risk doesn't seem worth it.

6/1 5/1

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