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Luck does not exist

Posted By: higonefive
Date: Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 10:10 a.m.

In Response To: Luck does not exist (Casper van der Tak)

That is for me from a theoretical point of view, wrong. Even with the far advanced bots, we have no archimedic point. So we can't say for sure, if a player played really better, or if he was luckier.

Second. It is the play between the mean and the variance. How much has to be the long run long, to even out the variance? For example. Every surgical cancer treatment is a single trial RO. How much treatments do you need, to see one technique better then the other? I think, there is so much order from noise involved, that it is also art, not sience. And so in backgammon.

If there is no luck "in the short run", and the motivation of luck for the not so good ones, no more butter on the bread of the pros.

Backgammon is a sociable game, because there is luck. It allows different people to have fun. For neilkaz, winning is the main motivation. For others exitement, regardless of the outcome.

Backgammon is a highly skilled game. But even pros can get broke in the "short" run, isn't it, Phil?

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