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THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!

Posted By: GeorgeMJ23
Date: Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 10:11 a.m.

In Response To: THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!! (Phil Simborg)

"If you play well and get to a position where you are favored to win 75% of the time, THERE IS NO LUCK from then on. If you play as you are supposed to, with skill, and without making errors, you will win that position 75% of the time provided you play it enough times."

Well the above has a serious flaw: The "from then on" statement. So i have to ask: Was the previous moves not included in the game of backgammon? :-)

Elaborating more to what i mean:
•Suppose what you say it is correct. There is no luck in backgammon.
•And suppose you have 2 equally good players play a game and reach the game you said with the one having 75% chances to win the game.
•Or suppose you have 2 players that play a game perfectly and reach the game you said with the one having 75% chances to win the game.

How this position where ons is favored to win 75% had occurred?
Starting position is equal and it gives 50% chance for each player to win.
So how this 505 turned into 75% for one player?
In both of our cases this can't happen.
►In the 1st case both players playing from an initial equal(50% chance to win) position should have equal chance to win in any moment of the game since they are of equal strength. So what made this 50% to be 75%? The dice. :-) That is LUCK!
►In the 2nd case both players playing from an initial equal(50% chance to win) position should have equal chance to win in any moment of the game since they are playing perfect moves. So what made this 50% chance of winning, to be 75%? The dice. :-) The one player had better dice PREVIOUSLY so the 50% turned into 75%. LUCK again!

So our premise that there is no luck in Backgammon leads to a contradiction.
So obviously THERE IS LUCK IN BACKGAMMON.

The important question for me is to find a way to measure and to quantify this luck compared to skill.
I.e how much x% - y% is luck versus skill in Backgammon, but this same question is ambiguous unfortunately.

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