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BGonline.org Forums
THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!! (Jason Lee)
Date: Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 12:54 p.m.
Craps is luck. Flipping a coin is luck. Any game where there is no skill added is luck. Yes, if you flip coins you will, in the long run break even, but if, after X number of times you are ahead, it is all luck and completely luck (unless you cheat). If you are ahead at backgammon after a significantly longer period of time, and if you could run every game you played through XG, there is little doubt in my mind that the results would clearly show that you had a lower PR than your opponents.
And that's the fallacy of comparing backgammon to flipping coins or playing craps. They are both a game of odds, but in backgammon you can affect the odds by adding or subtracting skill....we see it on every single evaluation where the odds of winning a X ONLY if you make the right play, and X-something if you don't.
In flipping coins and craps, the odds are always X.
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