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Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 1:53 p.m.

In Response To: Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview (Phil Simborg)

When you sit down to the table, each player has a 50/50 chance to win, however, the better player will win more than that. Is it because the better player is luckier? The DIFFERENCE is skill, not luck. EVEN IF YOU ONLY PLAY ONE GAME, if the inferior player won, it is because the odds say he was going to win a certain number of games, and that was simply one of them.

If you do not apply skill to the short term, then why make the best play if it only gives you the win 10% more than the second-best play? Because you know that regardless of "luck" the odds are better. Anyone who doesn't play backgammon that way is, by definition, a "fish."

Is there anyone here that would care to bet me that in 10 money games Stick would not be ahead of any intermediate player, even if I gave you 2 to 1 odds? But you would certainly take that bet if it were 1 game, and the difference between the two games is NOT LUCK, the difference is that in any sampling, the longer the sampling the closer the results will reflect the odds.

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