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Bear Off: win now vs. win later
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Bear Off: win now vs. win later (maxim)
Date: Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 9:53 p.m.
I misjudged maxim's position badly so I played around with the bot a bit.
Clearly leaving no immediate shots would be best at DMP. I think the key observation is that the only reason we can toy with the idea of going for the gammon is that we have very good winning chances even if we are hit. If we strengthen White's position, for example by moving her outfield blot within direct-cover range, or unkilling a checker, then 5/1 4/1 would be indicated even at gammon go.
In particular, ripping two off wins a few pure races for the gammon, but these gammons would certainly not be enough compensation if getting hit would lose us the game outright.
So we have to think about what happens if a blot-hitting contest starts. It's then clear that for these scenarios, making a four-point board with 5/1 5/2* is a whole lot better than ripping two off and leaving a two-point board with two blots. Putting White on the bar against our four-point board should also be good for the gammon, whether or not we're hit back. We have to think in terms of fighting for the gammon, not just racing for the gammon. Thus 5/1 5/2* is better than 4/off 3/off.
There's still the question of whether, after 5/1, it's better to play 5/2* or 4/1. This requires careful estimating of gammons and weighting the gammon wins with the gammon price, and so the choice will be score-dependent.
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