BGonline.org Forums

Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Monday, 12 September 2011, at 12:00 a.m.

In Response To: Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!) (Phil Simborg)

I would describe luck as the variance from expectation due to uncontrollable factors. In the short term the variance can be very large but in the long term it should be small, but it will still exist, in almost all cases.

I think the point being made by Tobias and Phil is, in the long term, the short term variances will basically even out and you will come very close to meeting expectation.

Messages In This Thread

• Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
  Phil Simborg -- Saturday, 10 September 2011, at 2:55 p.m.
  • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 10 September 2011, at 3:46 p.m.
    • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 10 September 2011, at 11:09 p.m.
  • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
    Stick -- Saturday, 10 September 2011, at 4:14 p.m.
    • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
      Phil Simborg -- Saturday, 10 September 2011, at 5:10 p.m.
      • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
        sonrik -- Saturday, 10 September 2011, at 11:23 p.m.
    • What is the "legal moves rule" and why is it controversial?
      leobueno -- Saturday, 10 September 2011, at 5:19 p.m.
  • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
    sonrik -- Saturday, 10 September 2011, at 11:41 p.m.
  • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
    Stick -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 1:55 a.m.
    • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
      Phil Simborg -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 2:08 a.m.
      • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
        Stick -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 2:22 a.m.
        • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
          Phil Simborg -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 3:04 a.m.
      • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 2:30 a.m.
      • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
        eXtreme Gammon -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 2:40 a.m.
        • +1 *NM*
          Michael Petch -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 2:44 a.m.
      • ROFLMAO !!
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 4:40 a.m.
      • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
        GeorgeMJ23 -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 10:11 a.m.
        • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
          Phil Simborg -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 1:01 p.m.
          • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
            GeorgeMJ23 -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 2:13 p.m.
        • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
          Jakob Garal -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 11:33 p.m.
          • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
            Jason Lee -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 12:25 a.m.
            • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
              Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 10:10 a.m.
              • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
                Jakob Garal -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 11:11 a.m.
                • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
                  Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 12:44 p.m.
                • Clarification
                  Tom Keith -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 1:01 p.m.
                  • Clarification
                    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 3:02 p.m.
                  • Clarification
                    Jakob Garal -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 4:26 p.m.
                    • Clarification
                      Stick -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 5:07 p.m.
                      • Clarification
                        Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 5:19 p.m.
                        • Clarification
                          Stick -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 5:31 p.m.
                          • Clarification
                            Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 5:37 p.m.
                        • Clarification
                          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 6:39 p.m.
                      • Clarification
                        Jakob Garal -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 11:57 p.m.
            • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
              Jakob Garal -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 11:08 a.m.
      • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
        Jason Lee -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 12:09 p.m.
        • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
          Phil Simborg -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 12:54 p.m.
      • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
        Frank Berger -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 3:21 p.m.
        • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
          Phil Simborg -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 4:12 p.m.
          • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
            Frank Berger -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 6:11 p.m.
      • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
        Steve Mellen -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 7:51 p.m.
        • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
          Michael Petch -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 8:51 p.m.
        • THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!!!!!
          Phil Simborg -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 4:09 p.m.
      • THERE IS NO LUCK IN ROULETTE!!!!!!!!
        Fender -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 2:36 p.m.
        • THERE IS NO LUCK IN ROULETTE!!!!!!!!
          Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 18 September 2011, at 5:37 p.m.
          • THERE IS NO LUCK IN ROULETTE!!!!!!!!
            Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 18 September 2011, at 6:47 p.m.
        • THERE IS NO LUCK IN ROULETTE!!!!!!!!
          Bob Koca -- Monday, 19 September 2011, at 2:14 a.m.
        • THERE IS NO LUCK IN ROULETTE!!!!!!!!
          Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 21 September 2011, at 11:52 p.m.
          • THERE IS NO LUCK IN ROULETTE!!!!!!!!
            Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 22 September 2011, at 1:25 a.m.
            • THERE IS NO LUCK IN ROLLOUT
              Bob Koca -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 2:11 a.m.
          • True..just far too much house edge !!
            neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 September 2011, at 3:18 a.m.
            • True..just far too much house edge !!
              Jake Jacobs -- Thursday, 22 September 2011, at 5:08 a.m.
              • True..just far too much house edge !!
                Bob Glass -- Thursday, 22 September 2011, at 9:06 p.m.
    • Luck does not exist
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 6:37 a.m.
      • Luck does not exist
        higonefive -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 10:10 a.m.
        • Luck does not exist
          Stick -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 10:35 a.m.
          • Luck does not exist
            higonefive -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 7:08 p.m.
        • Luck does not exist
          Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 11:11 a.m.
      • Luck does not exist
        GeorgeMJ23 -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 2:22 p.m.
        • Luck does not exist
          Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 4:41 p.m.
    • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
      Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 7:10 p.m.
      • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
        Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 7:57 p.m.
    • So we're in the deceptive campaign '12 season already?
      Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 11:22 p.m.
      • So we're in the deceptive campaign '12 season already?
        Stick -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 11:38 p.m.
        • So we're in the deceptive campaign '12 season already?
          Chuck Bower -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 12:23 a.m.
    • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
      Turz -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 9:52 a.m.
  • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
    Phil Simborg -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 1:53 p.m.
    • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 2:10 p.m.
      • Very nice *NM*
        Tom Keith -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 3:43 p.m.
    • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
      axsx -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 3:36 p.m.
    • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
      Frank Berger -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 3:39 p.m.
      • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 8:30 p.m.
      • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
        Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 7:32 p.m.
    • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
      Stick -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 6:41 p.m.
      • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
        Phil Simborg -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 12:43 a.m.
    • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
      Joe Russell -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 8:36 p.m.
      • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
        Phil Simborg -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 12:41 a.m.
        • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 1:03 a.m.
          • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
            Phil Simborg -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 1:32 p.m.
            • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
              Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 4:19 p.m.
              • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
                Phil Simborg -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 6:36 p.m.
                • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
                  Michael Petch -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 6:50 p.m.
                  • +++1. *NM*
                    higonefive -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 7:08 p.m.
                  • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
                    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 8:38 p.m.
                    • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
                      Michael Petch -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 8:53 p.m.
                      • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
                        Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 9:57 p.m.
                        • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
                          Michael Petch -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 10:26 p.m.
                          • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
                            Michael Petch -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 10:39 p.m.
                • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
                  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 10:28 p.m.
                • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
                  Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 10:40 p.m.
      • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
        Jakob Garal -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 12:11 a.m.
        • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
          Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 2:02 a.m.
        • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
          Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 7:50 a.m.
    • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 8:40 p.m.
    • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 11 September 2011, at 9:16 p.m.
    • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
      Joe Russell -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 12:00 a.m.
      • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 12:19 a.m.
        • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
          Phil Simborg -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 11:54 p.m.
          • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
            Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 12:17 a.m.
          • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
            Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 12:36 a.m.
            • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
              Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 12:38 a.m.
          • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
            mamabear -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 1:08 a.m.
          • Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)
            Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 7:38 a.m.
    • CORRECT and FAIR DEMONSTRATION
      Jakob Garal -- Thursday, 22 September 2011, at 11:25 p.m.
      • no shouting, please
        Sam Pottle -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 12:03 a.m.
        • no shouting, please
          Jakob Garal -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 8:11 a.m.
          • no shouting, please
            Steve Mellen -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 3:20 p.m.
            • no shouting, please
              Jakob Garal -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 10:24 p.m.
              • no shouting, please
                Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 10:43 p.m.
                • no shouting, please
                  Jakob Garal -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 11:46 p.m.
                  • no shouting, please
                    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 12:43 a.m.
                    • no shouting, please
                      Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 2:49 a.m.
                      • Explanation
                        Jakob Garal -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 8:10 p.m.
                        • Explanation
                          Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 9:18 p.m.
                          • Explanation
                            Jakob Garal -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 9:54 p.m.
                    • Represantative result
                      Jakob Garal -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 8:02 p.m.
              • no shouting, please
                Steve Mellen -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 11:06 p.m.
                • Correct estimation!
                  Jakob Garal -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 11:37 p.m.
                  • Correct estimation!
                    Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 3:06 a.m.
                    • Correct estimation!
                      Jakob Garal -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 10:18 p.m.
                  • Correct estimation!
                    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 4:58 a.m.
                    • Correct estimation!
                      Jakob Garal -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 7:38 p.m.
                • no shouting, please
                  Jason Lee -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 11:55 p.m.
                • Parallel Backgammon is Bulgarian invention
                  svilo -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 3:00 a.m.
                  • Parallel Backgammon is Bulgarian invention
                    Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 3:32 a.m.
                    • You are correct in priciple
                      svilo -- Monday, 26 September 2011, at 2:13 p.m.
      • CORRECT and FAIR DEMONSTRATION
        Bob Koca -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 2:05 a.m.
        • CORRECT and FAIR DEMONSTRATION
          Jakob Garal -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 8:09 a.m.
          • CORRECT and FAIR DEMONSTRATION
            Bob Koca -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 3:54 p.m.
            • CORRECT and FAIR DEMONSTRATION
              Jakob Garal -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 10:31 p.m.
              • CORRECT and FAIR DEMONSTRATION
                Bob Koca -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 10:43 p.m.
                • CORRECT and FAIR DEMONSTRATION
                  Jakob Garal -- Friday, 23 September 2011, at 11:52 p.m.
  • Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview
    higonefive -- Monday, 12 September 2011, at 7:21 p.m.
    • Trading vs BG, heading off toward OT land
      mamabear -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 1:32 a.m.