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Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 12 September 2011, at 12:19 a.m.

In Response To: Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!) (Joe Russell)

I think the point being made by Tobias and Phil is, in the long term, the short term variances will basically even out and you will come very close to meeting expectation.

If that were the point Phil was trying to make, who would disagree with him? But in this discussion he goes further, insisting that if you change the odds by (1) playing better or (2) playing longer, you've eliminated luck. Hence "THERE IS NO LUCK IN BACKGAMMON!!!!"

I prefer the Phil who in 2006 wrote:

"... the more skill you have, the more likely you are to win. ... But ... only in the long run. In the short run, just about anyone can beat anyone given enough luck, and when you have dice, you have luck."

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