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Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Monday, 12 September 2011, at 12:41 a.m.

In Response To: Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!) (Joe Russell)

The explanation is simple: if you were to flip a coin enough times, it is inevitable that you will have runs where heads comes up 10 times in a row or tails comes up 10 times in a row. But more to your example, if you have XG play XG, the odds of one side winning 10 in a row is 1000 to 1, and if it happens, it is NOT LUCK, it is simply a part of the odds that it will, occasionally, happen. I rolled 4 double 6's in a row once to gammon my opponent. The odds are about 1.7 Million to 1, but it happens. And it would be very strange if it didn't happen.

The odds of a given individual winning a multi-million dollar lottery more than once are too low to calculate, but it has happened many times, because the odds of someone doing it, out of all those people who play, are not very low.

The whole point of this discussion is that people confuse luck with odds. Neil thinks he is unlucky when he loses 6 matches in a row to inferior players, but the fact is, he might only be an average of a 60% favorite to beat each, and to lose 6 in a row is almost sure to happen from time to time given those odds.

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