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Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!)

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Monday, 12 September 2011, at 6:36 p.m.

In Response To: Refute this argument, please (I know someone will!) (Daniel Murphy)

I will be happy to tell you the distinction: you have no control over what happens with the draw...it is ALL LUCK if you get a bye or if you draw Neil Kazaross in the first round.

You DO HAVE CONTROL of what happens in a game of backgammon....regardless of the rolls, which will conform to the odds over time, you can win more by making correct decisions.

In any situation where you have no control, it is luck (yes, it is odds too), but it stops there. And that is why flipping coins is all luck, and how well you do in the draw is all luck, and playing backgammon is no luck--if you are a 60 percent favorite because you are that much better han your opponent, you will, in the long run, win 60%.

If you make a play that gives you 5% more winning chances, in the long run, you will win 5% more unless you play better than your opponents in which case you will win more than that, or if you play worse than your opponents, in which case you will lose less.

I cannot understand how people do not see the difference between an event that is all luck, or all odds, where you have no control over the outcome, and events where you do. And that is the difference.

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