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Trading vs BG, heading off toward OT land

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 1:32 a.m.

In Response To: Tobias Hellwag--International BG Personality--Interview (higonefive)

Your brother may be referring to something like the Elliott wave, or similar. One problem he's seeing might be that factors that didn't exist at the time the first measured waves occurred, now do. Now their effects must be included for the model to work--and it may not be at all clear how best to include them. It's also possible that some important pieces of the old picture are now missing, though I have no idea how you would either prove that was the case, or measure what effect they each would have on the overall wave. Is this what you are talking about?

If so, I don't see that backgammon has any comparable new factors in its equations. We are all in the process of discovering something that has been there since the rules of the game were written in their current form. The odds and correct plays for many bearoff decisions are clear and proven, and will remain so unless the rules change (for example, if we started using eight-sided dice, or three of the current type.) The bots can be consulted, and a pretty accurate answer received, on a vast variety of other decisions. When the bot is wrong, it's usually not by much; and each update of the bots reduces the number and magnitude of the bot's errors. We have no reason to think that this trend will not continue.

As I see it, the difference is that in trading, the game itself is evolving year to year in small but significant ways, so traders need to make appropriate, possibly substantial, adaptations to their models rather than just refinements, as is done with our models for backgammon. To put it another way, in BG we are focusing ever more clearly on a fixed star, but traders are following something that keeps moving...a planet, perhaps, or is it maybe an asteroid, comet, or piece of space junk that's heading in our direction? Trading seems like a much more difficult game than backgammon!

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