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OLM Tu 09/13/11

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 7:50 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 09/13/11 (Jason Lee)

Were we to double, White's take seems clear.

White has 2s and 5s to escape. His 3s and 4s are blocked, but he can play both (as well as 1s) in his home board. A 6 might be a problem for him. In case we are able to play safely on our turn, and do not roll doublets or 63, White will be forced off his anchor when he rolls 63, 64 or 65.

The main variation, however, has White rolling a 2 or 5 on this turn or the next, and making a partial escape. Thereafter, he will be willing to take a cube for the next few turns at least.

We have a few rolls that might be market losers. Often it depends whether White dances after we put him on the roof.

  • 11, 22, 33, 36, 66 – Point on White's head
  • 44, 55 – Run with big doubles.
On roll, we are ahead in the race by 9%.

My vote: No double

Mike

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