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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 9/13
Posted By: Pilgrim In Response To: Daily Quiz 9/13 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 11:57 a.m.
#1 - Double/Take
Firstly the adjusted pip counts are blue approx 60 (59 + 1 for the extra checker on two spot count) and white approx 69 (67 + 2 for the 4 checkers outside the homeboard). Using Trice, the last take point for is 60+(60-5)/7 rounded down = 66. So this would be a double/drop for money.
However this is match play and doubling will put the game on the line (and white will automatically re-whip). White's take point is 16% (MET for 1Ca 5a).
So does white have 16% winning chances - I think so but this is a guess. I have not come across a practical way to estimate winning chances over the board for this type of position so any suggestions would be much appreciated.
#2 - Double/Take
Blue has a 20 pip lead, better position in the form of a 4 point prime & 20 point anchor and threat in the form of hitting the 15 spot. I would double by Woolsey's law because I am not certain it is a take.
I would take because blue has no homeboard development and to hit on the 15 spot, blue will need to break his anchor.
#3 - Double/Take
Blue is about even in the race but has better position (all checkers escaped and a stronger homeboard) and some limited attacking opportunities. There are several rolls where the market could be gone next turn [53,55,64,66,33]. However, white has a game as well - he could escape the last checker and be in a race or hit blue, who would then face a lot of ammunition escaping. I am not certain this is technically a double but would double without hesitation against a human opponent.
I would take because under Simborg's law I have not idea whether this is a double.
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