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Daily Quiz 9/13

Posted By: adambulldog
Date: Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 3:31 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 9/13 (Daily Quiz)

Number 1

Using the Ward Count, we add 2 pips to white’s count for the checkers outside the home board and 1 pip to Blue’s count for the extra checker on the deuce point. (I really don’t know whether to use the Ward Count or the Keith Count is positions like this. The Ward Count doesn’t account for White’s hole on the five point, which seems like an erroneous omission; the Keith Count doesn’t account for the checkers outside the homeboard, which also seems faulty.) The adjusted pipcount is then 60 to 69. Using Trice -5/7, the PoLT for money is 7 pips down. The money takepoint corresponds to 22% chances of winning the game. I reckon each pip is worth 2.5% (not really sure about this) so White’s chances are 17%. The takepoint is 16%, so it’s a take, and Blue has lots of market losers this turn (a slightly above average roll followed by a slightly below-average roll is likely to lead to a double-pass), so I think this is double-take. Blue probably wants to hold off doubling against a weaker opponent for obvious reasons.

Number 2

Blue leads in all phases of the game. He has a nice race lead, a great advanced anchor, and a four point blockade. This looks like a double. Blue has several market losing sequences. Blue may have lost his market already, but I don’t think so. I took a lesson from Mary Hickey once where she called doubles like this “no point” doubles, since blue has made no points in his inner board. These positions are usually takes. The game is still young, blue is going to have some work to do, most of the time white anchors and has a playable game. I think this is double-take.

Number 3

Blue is up two pips, has the best three homeboard points and a broken four-prime. He has escaped his own back checkers. Yet his position doesn’t lend itself to a convenient attack on Blue’s back checker. White has a nice forward position—Blue is not going to want to hit loose, since a return hit is likely to win the game for White. This looks like an easy take. Is it a double? I don’t think so. I would guess that Blue has winning chances in the low 60s with few gammons and few market losers (PoH followed by a dance, or big doubles leading to a huge race lead). No double-take is my verdict.

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