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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 10:24 p.m.

In Response To: Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit? (Paul Weaver)

I would have hit in both problems fwiw but after checking the original problem against XGR+ I wondered how big the swing was on the only immediate disaster roll for my opponent. That may carry on in the future but that's quite a swing for such a wimpy looking variation.

Original 4 ply/XGR+

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 38 5 point match pip: 197 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=--BB--B--a-B-------A-CeBgA:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:5:10 Blue to play 52

1. Rollout1 Bar/20 21/19 eq: +0.052 Player: Opponent: 54.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 45.34% (G:35.76% B:1.09%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.041...+0.062) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 hours 43 minutes 2. Rollout1 Bar/20 11/9* eq: +0.019 (-0.033) Player: Opponent: 54.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 45.94% (G:36.77% B:1.45%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.009...+0.029) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 35 minutes 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 19416943 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

Original 3 ply/XGR

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 38 5 point match pip: 197 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=--BB--B--a-B-------A-CeBgA:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:5:10 Blue to play 52

1. Rollout1 Bar/20 21/19 eq: +0.022 Player: Opponent: 53.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 46.01% (G:36.31% B:1.49%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.014...+0.030) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes 2. Rollout1 Bar/20 11/9* eq: -0.029 (-0.051) Player: Opponent: 52.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 47.01% (G:37.85% B:1.64%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.037...-0.021) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes 1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 19416943 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Variant 4 ply/XGR+

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 40 5 point match pip: 197 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=--BB--B--a-B-------A-CfBfA:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:5:10 Blue to play 52

1. Rollout1 Bar/20 11/9* eq: -0.109 Player: Opponent: 50.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 49.05% (G:38.98% B:1.64%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.124...-0.094) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 hours 34 minutes 2. Rollout1 Bar/20 23/21 eq: -0.248 (-0.139) Player: Opponent: 47.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 52.32% (G:43.11% B:1.27%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.260...-0.236) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 19416943 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

Variant 3 ply/XGR

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 40 5 point match pip: 197 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=--BB--B--a-B-------A-CfBfA:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:5:10 Blue to play 52

1. Rollout1 Bar/20 11/9* eq: -0.121 Player: Opponent: 50.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 49.40% (G:39.26% B:1.46%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.135...-0.108) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes 2. Rollout1 Bar/20 23/21 eq: -0.274 (-0.153) Player: Opponent: 47.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 52.85% (G:43.72% B:1.43%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.285...-0.263) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes 1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 19416943 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
  Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 7:01 p.m.
  • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 7:43 p.m.
  • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
    Stick -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 8:55 p.m.
    • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 9:31 p.m.
  • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
    Kevin Whyte -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 1:30 a.m.
  • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
    Fabrice Liardet -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 12:51 p.m.
  • Insane Variant
    Stick -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 12:54 p.m.
    • Insane Variant
      Fabrice Liardet -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 1:12 p.m.
      • Insane Variant
        Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 1:15 p.m.
        • Insane Variant
          Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 7:49 p.m.
  • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
    Udo Moerschbach -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 2:38 p.m.
    • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
      GeorgeMJ23 -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 3:01 p.m.
      • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
        Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 3:21 p.m.
  • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
    Colin Owen -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 5:48 p.m.
    • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 6:15 p.m.
  • Playing Backgame: Hit Or No Hit?
    Ben E. -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 6:43 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 10:24 p.m.
    • Rollouts
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 14 September 2011, at 10:50 p.m.
    • Rollouts
      Udo Moerschbach -- Thursday, 15 September 2011, at 12:32 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 15 September 2011, at 12:56 a.m.
      • Rollouts
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 15 September 2011, at 1:09 a.m.
        • Rollouts
          neilkaz -- Thursday, 15 September 2011, at 1:15 a.m.
          • Rollouts
            Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 15 September 2011, at 2:39 p.m.
            • Rollouts
              neilkaz -- Thursday, 15 September 2011, at 3:31 p.m.