| |
BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 9/13
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Daily Quiz 9/13 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Thursday, 15 September 2011, at 2:33 a.m.
1) The redouble is for the match and TP = 16%. 4-crossover lead smells like a pass. Pip count is 59-67. White is flat, Blue is pretty "nice." wrt wastage I estimate Blue is 2 pips better not counting White's 5 point gap. Or Blue's, but Blue is heavy on 6 and can miss with one 3 without losing a roll. I don't think Blue's gap matters much. 1's, 5's and 6's won't fill White's gap. I dock White 2 more pips for the gap. Maybe because then the math matches the smell but so be it. So 59-71. Money game POLT = 59-67. Call that 78%. But I've adjusted White to 71, 4 more than 67. So I add 4*2%, which I recall is about right for this length of race. Get 86%. Double/pass.
2) Blue is up 20 pips, has an advanced anchor vs. two split checkers, has no blots vs. 3 blots, has a 4-prime vs. no prime, and threatens to hit an outfield checker. Or roll big doublets. Or blitz. Or prime. White's accomplished nothing but split his back checkers. On the other hand, Blue must give up the anchor to hit in the outfield, is kind of flat with 6 made points and all 3 spares on the 6 point, and hasn't yet made a point in his board. Looks like a strong double, but still a take. Double/take
3) With a 2 pip lead, mediocre 4-prime vs. one checker behind but at the edge of the prime, and a little blitzing threat, I'd wait a roll on this double. No double.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.