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XG Error analysis question

Posted By: joe freedman
Date: Sunday, 18 September 2011, at 1:42 p.m.

Using the standard XG MET, 5a crawford is 15.82%. Assuming that red's chances in the below position are 15.51%, that means it's a pass. But only by .31% MWC. So why is ND rated as a sizeable blunder? Put another way, is it really a blunder to miscalculate game winning chances by 0.32%? Or maybe it's a blunder from the perspective of the leader's doubling window?

But that raises another question. XG says that white's chance of winning the game if ND is .8447 but chances of winning if D/T is .8449. That cannot be right, because if ND, white can cash on the next roll unless red's position improves. By holding the cube, white will win a small but significant number of games he would lose with D/T. This may not matter in this position, as it is already a pass, so holding the cube is clearly wrong. But if you improve red's position to a take (just move spare on deuce point to the five point (according to XG+) (position 2), then D/T will lose more games than ND. Presumably more than XG+'s indication. It rates GWC of ND at 8360 and ND/T at 8351. ND is still a blunder.

I apologize if this topic has already been discussed to death, and would appreciate a reference to a link if there is one.

is costas

score: 2
pip: 82
7 point match
pip: 49
score: 4

is blotto
XGID=-aGC-DA----a-------bbbbcb-:1:1:1:00:4:2:0:7:3
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 84.47% (G:2.05% B:0.06%) 84.49% (G:3.25% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 15.53% (G:0.03% B:0.00%) 15.51% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.708 +1.244
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.886 (-0.114)
Redouble/Take:+1.018 (+0.018)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2
is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 85
7 point match
pip: 49
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=-aGC-DA----a-------bcbbbb-:1:1:1:00:4:2:0:7:3
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 83.60% (G:2.24% B:0.04%) 83.51% (G:3.83% B:0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 16.40% (G:0.04% B:0.00%) 16.49% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.692 +1.201
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.857 (-0.104)
Redouble/Take:+0.961
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.039)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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