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XG Error analysis question

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 18 September 2011, at 11:02 p.m.

In Response To: XG Error analysis question (joe freedman)

I don't understand this "pseudo cubeless" idea, but it can't be right that red's GWC are virtually identical whether he holds the cube or doubles.

Correct, the ND and D/T GWC are not the same IF double/pass ends games (which of course is what double/pass does) which you wouldn't always win if you had to play them to the end. But IF you did have to play all games to conclusion, including the games in which there is a double/pass, the game outcomes for ND now and D/T could easily be very similar.

OTB, when you double your opponent and he passes, you get full credit in your match for however much ME however many points you win are worth. In a rollout, this full credit shows up in the reported Cubeful Equity. It does NOT show up in the ND or DT game breakdowns. In those breakdowns, you don't get credit for ALL the games that you have just won with double/pass. You only get credit for the percent of games that you would actually win if all of those games were played to conclusion after the double/pass.

Does that help?

XG, Gnubg, BG Blitz and Snowie have always reported game breakdowns in this same way (JellyFish and TD Gammon couldn't do cubeful rollouts).

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