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OLM We 09/21/11

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 22 September 2011, at 3:30 a.m.

In Response To: OLM We 09/21/11 (Jason Lee)

After this move, we'll be up by 7 pips in the race, so I am a little reluctant to hit loose on the 4pt. We'd be offering 17 return shots, and we'll lose 21 pips if we are hit. The number of shots is higher when you count the tempo hits that involve hitting with a 5 on our 24pt.

But nothing else looks exciting either.

  • Hit loose: 13/4*.
  • Make the 1pt: 6/1, 5/1.
  • Slot the 2pt: 13/8, 6/2.
Looking at White's position, I see that he is all stacked up. His most likely moves include:
  • Anchoring with a 1.
  • Playing down with a 5, 7 or 8.
  • Moving one or both back men into the outfield.
If he can anchor, he might leave a blot in our outer board, but otherwise he will probably try to avoid that. Unfortunately, when we hit him, we are creating options for a player with few.

If the passive plays were more constructive, I would try one of them. But both move our checkers too deep into our board. Even slotting the 2pt is bad. If we're not going to hit White now, we need our midpoint spare to attack him when he runs into the outfield.

Our three rear checkers indicate bold play. I say attack now.

My vote: 13/4*

Mike

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