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Trailer invariably wins at the Crawford

Posted By: Keene
Date: Saturday, 24 September 2011, at 5:21 a.m.

In Response To: Trailer invariably wins at the Crawford (Bob Koca)

Bob: Why would playing aggressively for the gammon cost more in win chance than playing timidly trying to avoid it cost in win chance?

My perspective on this is that there would be more opportunity for the person playing to not lose the gammon to catch one of the many high volatility plays that are more common at gammon-aggressive scores, and then just roll it home.

Unfortunately, I also cannot mathematically prove it, however, this is my instinct. In this case, I would be surprised if it were wrong.

The other way to look at it (subjectively also), is that when scores move from -1,-5 to -1,-3, or other similar things, then even though the free drop may be removed by a gammon win from the trailer, then it is still a small amount of match equity. Also, do not rule out the backgammons - again small equity there, but equity nonetheless. These small additional factors will influence aggressive play. If you dont play for it, then you cant get it.

Surely with the stellar amount of actual Math Wizards on here, someone must be able to come up with a proof for this?

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