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OLM Sa 09/24/11

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 25 September 2011, at 5:18 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 09/24/11 (neilkaz)

as we jack up mutual G chances we jack up our opp's recube vig AtS.

I agree with your play but since at least two people have said something similar I wanted to bring it into question. First, our gammon value on a 2 cube is basically the same as our opponent's. If the cube ever gets to 4 of course our gammon value plummets and our opponent's goes up even further.

Here I wouldn't say that if we went with the swipe play of 5/2*/1* that we were jacking up anyone's gammon chances except our own. I expect a big difference in gammons won between this play and 8/7(2) 6/4 for us. I expect a very small difference in gammons won for our opponent after we hit two. We still have our anchor, we're only leaving one blot, we have the better board, that play can't be giving up that many gammons. Our flat winning chances from this play will drop enough though that I think it's wrong ... I just thought people were overstating the mutual gammon factor after hitting two.

Stick

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