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Some bot info

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 1 October 2011, at 10:21 p.m.

In Response To: Aces: So confused (Jeremy Bagai)

Don't know what I would have played OTB, but one red flag that should come up is that higher anchors are much worse than usual when opponent is far ahead in the race and has already cleared his outside points.

So, what's the reasoning behind that? Seems to be that 1) there are more gin rolls if you advance to the 20 pt, 2) the likelihood of getting gammoned is relatively low since we're still only facing a 1pt board, and 3) we are far enough behind in the race that we have reasonable chances of a well-timed 24 or 23pt game. Making the 20pt provides some gammon insurance but it's actually pretty minimal when you compare it to the alternative of keeping a low anchor. After 24/20, you can still lose to a running G if opponent rolls 66 or 55, or if he starts making a board & hits the 3rd man and you start fanning.

Note the big swing on 66 (anti-joker) and 55. You do get more immediate shots if you make the 20. However, it gets closer to a one-shot proposition where you have to hit back this roll or give up most of your future equity in the game, and your board is not yet good enough to make this a one-shot prop. Keeping the 24pt is actually better for winning the game (even though, again, 66 isn't as bad, so it plays worse on immediate rolls) but advancing to the 23pt keeps enough game winning chances and provides quite a bit of gammon insurance.

Contrast with:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
7 point match
pip: 144
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBBBB-----Ba--edeA---B-:1:1:1:11:1:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 11

1.XG Roller++24/20eq: -0.2435
Player:
Opponent:		34.27% (G:6.23% B:0.10%)
65.73% (G:7.69% B:0.08%)
2.XG Roller++13/12 13/10eq: -0.2939 (-0.0504)
Player:
Opponent:		34.48% (G:5.36% B:0.10%)
65.52% (G:12.39% B:0.70%)
3.XG Roller++13/9eq: -0.2959 (-0.0524)
Player:
Opponent:		34.38% (G:5.35% B:0.10%)
65.62% (G:12.35% B:0.69%)
4.XG Roller++24/23(2) 13/11eq: -0.3236 (-0.0801)
Player:
Opponent:		32.14% (G:4.00% B:0.06%)
67.86% (G:9.08% B:0.27%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Where even though you still trail a mile in the race, your board is good enough that generating immediate shots is starting to take precedence.

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