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OLM Sa 10/01/11

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Sunday, 2 October 2011, at 8:04 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 10/01/11 (Jason Lee)

After 24/18 7/1 9/3(2) the 5/36 return hits should be compensated by 10/36 gammons.

A close-out of 2 on the bar (with 2 outfield crossovers) scores between 45 and 95% gammons,lets say 60%.

The close-out chance with one point open is about 50%. So there is about 30% gammons.

There also will be variations with more checkers on the bar, and some with backgammons.

This might be a pretty good chance to get to 14-8 in the match.

But what if the return hits are gammons? There will be about 23% gammons, so blue needs 23% more giving 53% gammons. So he needs a third checker on the bar.

It's getting close, especially since we're leading the match (we should be a bit careful) and white owns the cube (he has chances till the end).

My vote is for 24/18 7/1 9/3(2)

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