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Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 2 October 2011, at 6:39 p.m.

In Response To: Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot? (Taper_Mike)

Chance of

• losing a backgammon: insignificant
• losing a gammon without hitting: tiny -- you need 21 crossovers to get off the gammon
• losing more gammons because you got hit: extremely tiny
• winning without hitting: none
• winning after a hit: small
• losing fewer gammons by hitting: appreciable
• hitting after bar/18 vs. bar/20 13/11 or 6/4: about 30% vs. 26%

Verdict: play bar/18. For almost no risk of losing additional gammons, this play should both decrease your chance of losing a gammon and increase your chance of winning.

And no, I wouldn't think slotting is second best. I'd play 13/11 for outfield coverage. After 6/4 few numbers would hit and cover. There would be more sequences, I'd guess, of hit and return hit.

Messages In This Thread

• Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?
  Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 1 October 2011, at 8:57 a.m.
  • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?
    kruidenbuiltje -- Saturday, 1 October 2011, at 1:06 p.m.
  • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?
    Ben E. -- Sunday, 2 October 2011, at 5:22 p.m.
  • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 2 October 2011, at 6:39 p.m.
  • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 2 October 2011, at 6:49 p.m.
  • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot? **Rollout**
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 3 October 2011, at 1:09 a.m.
    • Correction: There is no hiding when White rolls a 2.
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 3 October 2011, at 1:13 a.m.
    • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot? **Rollout**
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 3 October 2011, at 7:31 a.m.