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Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot? **Rollout**

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 3 October 2011, at 1:09 a.m.

In Response To: Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot? (Taper_Mike)

Thanks for the analyses. I played bar/20, 13/11. It never occurred to me to offer a direct shot. The big advantage in playing out to the 18pt comes when White rolls any of the nine rolls that total five or less (11, 12, 13, 14, 23) or certain rolls that are blocked (53, 44). No matter how White plays, Black will get a double shot. White's 2s are another contributing factor. If Black stays back on the 20pt, White will duck a direct shot when he rolls 21, 22 and 23 by parking his blot on the 11pt. So, Blue has a considerable upside when he plays bar/18. The downside occurs when White rolls a 6, and hits. Clearly, Blue is better off not to be hit. But with many 6s, it does not matter whether Blue has a blot on the 18 point or not. White can pick-and-pass (or simply pass, if he wants to) when he rolls 66, 65, 64, 63, 33. White gains significantly on nine rolls only (61, 62, 51, 42 and 22). As many have pointed out, however, the equity lost by Blue in these variations is very little. Upon analyis, it's an easy call. Blue has a lot to gain, and little to lose. He should play bar/18. Mike

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 42 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 171 score: 7 Blue is Player 1
XGID=------E-C---aD------BbbeeA:1:1:1:52:7:3:3:0:10
Blue to play 52

1.	Rollout1	Bar/18	eq: -1.3267
	Player: Opponent: 16.75% (G:1.40% B:0.04%) 83.25% (G:75.30% B:0.02%) Conf.: ±0.0064 (-1.3331...-1.3203) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 13/11	eq: -1.4106 (-0.0839)
	Player: Opponent: 14.26% (G:1.11% B:0.03%) 85.74% (G:77.82% B:0.02%) Conf.: ±0.0054 (-1.4160...-1.4052) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64979294 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Messages In This Thread

• Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?
  Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 1 October 2011, at 8:57 a.m.
  • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?
    kruidenbuiltje -- Saturday, 1 October 2011, at 1:06 p.m.
  • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?
    Ben E. -- Sunday, 2 October 2011, at 5:22 p.m.
  • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 2 October 2011, at 6:39 p.m.
  • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot?
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 2 October 2011, at 6:49 p.m.
  • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot? **Rollout**
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 3 October 2011, at 1:09 a.m.
    • Correction: There is no hiding when White rolls a 2.
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 3 October 2011, at 1:13 a.m.
    • Blue to play 5-2 – Would you slot? **Rollout**
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 3 October 2011, at 7:31 a.m.