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OLM Tu 10/04/11 #1

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 5 October 2011, at 3:49 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 10/04/11 #1 (Jason Lee)

5's and 2's cover -- that's 15 + 12 - 4 = 23 numbers. We win few of these, about one I'd guess, and sometimes we lose a gammon costing us the match. Of the other 13 numbers, about half hit and half don't. Either way, we're the usual 11/36 dog to roll either an ace or six, and of course we don't even always win then. And if we don't perform, I'd guess on average we're not ginned out but very close to it. If we always won when we performed, then we could count on winning about 1/3 of 1/3 = 1/9 = 11%, plus the odd scramble. Since we don't always win when we perform, I'll put our GWC at well under 20%.

What's our take point? Gammonless and with no redoubles, we risk 15% to gain 40% for a take point of 27%.

So! Let's move on!

Pass.

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