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How do you interpret rollout results?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 6 October 2011, at 11:35 a.m.

In Response To: How do you interpret rollout results? (Dmitriy Obukhov)

Do you want to know W/L/G cubeful or cubeless?

Cubeful, if D/T = 0.955, then you won't win many gammons if you don't double now, because you'll be cashing many games next roll; and if D/T = 67% wins and 32% gammons cubeless, you won't win that many cubeful after D/T, since you'll be redoubled out sometimes.

Cubeless, the D/T numbers should be good, if the analysis is good.

Cubeful, you'll have have to adjust the D/T W and G downwards, to account for Opponent's cube holding value.

As a rule, I ignore ND game breakdowns for D/T positions. And I can't think why averaging ND and DT breakdowns should be accurate, except coincidentally.

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