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RO and analysis

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 6 October 2011, at 3:23 p.m.

In Response To: Another one for you bearoff formula lovers (neilkaz)

I think I may have put this in a Flint Newsletter Quiz over 20 years ago but anyhow, inspite of even pip counts and only a 3.8 EPC difference this is a close pass. Years ago, quite a few players didn't even cube this, but many didn't have the advantage of a bear off program.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 48
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 48
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBC------------bbbccc-:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.391% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 78.381% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.609% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 21.619% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5678 +1.1352
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8616 (-0.1384)±0.0015 (+0.8601..+0.8631)
Double/Take:+1.0249 (+0.0249)±0.0019 (+1.0230..+1.0268)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46746902
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

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