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Don't be sad - RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 7 October 2011, at 10:27 p.m.

In Response To: Don't be sad, 'cause 3 out of 4 ain't bad (Daniel Murphy)

I present two checker play rollouts, with centered cube and having doubled. The position may be a borderline double as the short cube rollout indicates.

Normal game, Blue to play 3-3 White 157 MG 131 Position ID: 4h5iDDDguxmDAA Match ID: cIkNAAAAAAAE Alert: missed double ( -0.0065)! Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.4700 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take +0.7458 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.2542 3. No double +0.7393 -0.0065 Proper cube action: Double, take Rollout details Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6826 0.1644 0.0110 - 0.3174 0.0691 0.0015 +0.4700 +0.7393 Standard error 0.0027 0.0027 0.0011 - 0.0027 0.0018 0.0004 0.0062 0.0169 Player White owns 2-cube 0.6889 0.1725 0.0130 - 0.3111 0.0684 0.0018 +0.9863 +0.7458 Standard error 0.0027 0.0033 0.0014 - 0.0027 0.0017 0.0004 0.0135 0.0191 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 8/5(2) 6/3(2) +0.9636 0.7292 0.2157 0.0167 - 0.2708 0.0625 0.0013 +0.6270 +0.9636 0.0011 0.0014 0.0010 - 0.0011 0.0008 0.0002 0.0034 0.0083 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933289850 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 18/15* 13/10 6/3(2) +0.9288 ( -0.0348) 0.6980 0.2765 0.0322 - 0.3020 0.0631 0.0017 +0.6399 +0.9288 0.0015 0.0019 0.0011 - 0.0015 0.0009 0.0002 0.0040 0.0103 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933289850 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 3 R 18/15* 6/3(3) +0.8711 ( -0.0925) 0.6798 0.2523 0.0277 - 0.3202 0.0633 0.0018 +0.5745 +0.8711 0.0026 0.0032 0.0019 - 0.0026 0.0016 0.0008 0.0070 0.0196 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933289850 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 4 R 18/15* 10/4 7/4 +0.8562 ( -0.1074) 0.6747 0.2676 0.0327 - 0.3253 0.0707 0.0028 +0.5763 +0.8562 0.0035 0.0038 0.0021 - 0.0035 0.0021 0.0003 0.0089 0.0243 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 325 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933289850 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 5 R 18/15* 13/10 8/5(2) +0.8066 ( -0.1570) 0.6632 0.2760 0.0290 - 0.3368 0.0705 0.0025 +0.5584 +0.8066 0.0038 0.0058 0.0032 - 0.0038 0.0019 0.0002 0.0133 0.0326 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933289850 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 6 R 18/15* 10/7 8/5(2) +0.7982 ( -0.1654) 0.6594 0.2746 0.0311 - 0.3406 0.0745 0.0028 +0.5472 +0.7982 0.0045 0.0046 0.0026 - 0.0045 0.0022 0.0005 0.0111 0.0356 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933289850 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 7 R 18/15* 8/5(2) 6/3 +0.7896 ( -0.1740) 0.6752 0.2638 0.0233 - 0.3248 0.0850 0.0030 +0.5493 +0.7896 0.0034 0.0040 0.0030 - 0.0034 0.0021 0.0002 0.0097 0.0236 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 8 R 18/15* 7/4 6/3(2) +0.7693 ( -0.1943) 0.6717 0.2692 0.0326 - 0.3283 0.0891 0.0035 +0.5526 +0.7693 0.0033 0.0030 0.0013 - 0.0033 0.0020 0.0005 0.0081 0.0236 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 9 R 18/15* 10/7 6/3(2) +0.7671 ( -0.1965) 0.6573 0.2820 0.0386 - 0.3427 0.0857 0.0030 +0.5466 +0.7671 0.0044 0.0046 0.0026 - 0.0044 0.0022 0.0005 0.0108 0.0314 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 10 R 18/15* 13/7 13/10 +0.7072 ( -0.2564) 0.6582 0.2218 0.0211 - 0.3418 0.0727 0.0023 +0.4845 +0.7072 0.0037 0.0043 0.0019 - 0.0037 0.0032 0.0008 0.0105 0.0334 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 11 R 18/15* 7/4(3) +0.6165 ( -0.3471) 0.6373 0.2468 0.0208 - 0.3627 0.0825 0.0033 +0.4565 +0.6165 0.0042 0.0049 0.0034 - 0.0042 0.0027 0.0004 0.0116 0.0341 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] Annotation 1. Cubeful 2-ply 18/15* 6/3(3) Eq.: +0.9873 0.7131 0.2562 0.0242 - 0.2869 0.0619 0.0013 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2. Cubeful 2-ply 18/15* 13/10 6/3(2) Eq.: +0.9714 ( -0.0159) 0.7245 0.2793 0.0288 - 0.2755 0.0634 0.0015 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 3. Cubeful 2-ply 8/5(2) 6/3(2) Eq.: +0.9638 ( -0.0235) 0.7522 0.2217 0.0165 - 0.2478 0.0624 0.0012 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 4. Cubeful 2-ply 18/15* 10/4 7/4 Eq.: +0.9527 ( -0.0346) 0.7077 0.2737 0.0288 - 0.2923 0.0667 0.0016 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 5. Cubeful 2-ply 18/15* 10/7 8/5(2) Eq.: +0.9463 ( -0.0410) 0.6990 0.2803 0.0304 - 0.3010 0.0710 0.0016 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 6. Cubeful 2-ply 18/15* 13/10 8/5(2) Eq.: +0.9356 ( -0.0517) 0.7022 0.2734 0.0296 - 0.2978 0.0653 0.0014 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 1. Cubeful 3-ply 18/15* 13/10 6/3(2) Eq.: +0.9453 0.6997 0.2698 0.0300 - 0.3003 0.0641 0.0014 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster] 2. Cubeful 3-ply 8/5(2) 6/3(2) Eq.: +0.9394 ( -0.0059) 0.7249 0.2112 0.0168 - 0.2751 0.0632 0.0011 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster] 3. Cubeful 3-ply 18/15* 6/3(3) Eq.: +0.9026 ( -0.0427) 0.6820 0.2506 0.0250 - 0.3180 0.0683 0.0014 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster] 4. Cubeful 3-ply 18/15* 10/4 7/4 Eq.: +0.8969 ( -0.0484) 0.6778 0.2644 0.0279 - 0.3222 0.0736 0.0019 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster] 5. Cubeful 3-ply 18/15* 13/10 8/5(2) Eq.: +0.8780 ( -0.0672) 0.6788 0.2667 0.0278 - 0.3212 0.0697 0.0015 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster] 6. Cubeful 3-ply 18/15* 10/7 8/5(2) Eq.: +0.8414 ( -0.1039) 0.6672 0.2673 0.0286 - 0.3328 0.0785 0.0019 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster] 1. Cubeful 4-ply 18/15* 6/3(3) Eq.: +0.9910 0.7111 0.2618 0.0259 - 0.2889 0.0631 0.0015 4-ply cubeful prune [4ply] 2. Cubeful 4-ply 18/15* 13/10 6/3(2) Eq.: +0.9777 ( -0.0133) 0.7263 0.2832 0.0311 - 0.2737 0.0625 0.0015 4-ply cubeful prune [4ply] 3. Cubeful 4-ply 8/5(2) 6/3(2) Eq.: +0.9722 ( -0.0188) 0.7524 0.2238 0.0175 - 0.2476 0.0632 0.0013 4-ply cubeful prune [4ply] 4. Cubeful 4-ply 18/15* 10/4 7/4 Eq.: +0.9581 ( -0.0329) 0.7078 0.2738 0.0307 - 0.2922 0.0670 0.0017 4-ply cubeful prune [4ply] 5. Cubeful 4-ply 18/15* 10/7 8/5(2) Eq.: +0.9490 ( -0.0421) 0.6994 0.2783 0.0311 - 0.3006 0.0717 0.0017 4-ply cubeful prune [4ply] 6. Cubeful 4-ply 18/15* 13/10 8/5(2) Eq.: +0.9437 ( -0.0473) 0.7056 0.2729 0.0304 - 0.2944 0.0644 0.0015 4-ply cubeful prune [4ply]

Normal game. Blue to play 3-3 White 157 MG 131 Position ID: 4h5iDDDguxmDAA Match ID: QYkNAAAAAAAE # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 8/5(2) 6/3(2) +0.5503 0.7381 0.2178 0.0170 - 0.2619 0.0543 0.0022 +0.6543 +0.5503 0.0027 0.0037 0.0014 - 0.0027 0.0019 0.0004 0.0068 0.0092 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 580 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 18/15* 13/10 6/3(2) +0.5235 ( -0.0268) 0.7017 0.2760 0.0321 - 0.2983 0.0595 0.0014 +0.6507 +0.5235 0.0033 0.0040 0.0024 - 0.0033 0.0020 0.0003 0.0087 0.0111 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 580 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 3 R 18/15* 10/4 7/4 +0.4416 ( -0.1087) 0.6779 0.2668 0.0343 - 0.3221 0.0668 0.0031 +0.5870 +0.4416 0.0060 0.0063 0.0029 - 0.0060 0.0038 0.0005 0.0151 0.0218 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 178 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 4 R 18/15* 6/3(3) +0.4146 ( -0.1357) 0.6727 0.2583 0.0261 - 0.3273 0.0632 0.0030 +0.5638 +0.4146 0.0066 0.0066 0.0040 - 0.0066 0.0033 0.0004 0.0170 0.0242 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 177 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 5 R 18/15* 13/10 8/5(2) +0.3926 ( -0.1577) 0.6619 0.2615 0.0333 - 0.3381 0.0654 0.0020 +0.5514 +0.3926 0.0061 0.0069 0.0035 - 0.0061 0.0034 0.0005 0.0164 0.0256 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 177 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 933638263 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Don't be sad, 'cause 3 out of 4 ain't bad
  Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 6 October 2011, at 3:39 a.m.
  • Don't be sad, 'cause 3 out of 4 ain't bad
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 6 October 2011, at 5:47 a.m.
    • Don't be sad, 'cause 3 out of 4 ain't bad
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 6 October 2011, at 6:40 a.m.
      • Don't be sad, 'cause 3 out of 4 ain't bad
        Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 6 October 2011, at 7:38 a.m.
  • Don't be sad, 'cause 3 out of 4 ain't bad
    Kevin Whyte -- Thursday, 6 October 2011, at 8:01 a.m.
  • Don't be sad, 'cause 3 out of 4 ain't bad
    Ben E. -- Thursday, 6 October 2011, at 12:50 p.m.
  • Don't be sad, 'cause 3 out of 4 ain't bad
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 6 October 2011, at 3:55 p.m.
  • Don't be sad - RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 7 October 2011, at 10:27 p.m.
    • Don't be sad - RO
      Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 8 October 2011, at 6:30 a.m.