| |
BGonline.org Forums
Rollout: And the best 5 is...?
Posted By: Casper van der Tak In Response To: Rollout: And the best 5 is...? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Monday, 10 October 2011, at 9:56 p.m.
I found this a very interesting position, thanks for posting Timothy. First off, I don't really know what is going on here. One of the things I noticed with my Q&D GNU rollout is that at least after B/18, Blue benefits from cube access despite losing more games than winning. Blue's cubeless equity is lower than Blue's live cube equity. This is not a Jacoby artifact, it also happens at 0-0 in a long match. My guess is that what happens is that either White misses or hits and Blue rehits, in which cases Blue has an edge and moves in on an efficient cube, or White hits, Blue dances, and White is almost too good, but not quite.
This is an important effect apparently, because for the other plays Blue's cubeless equity is higher than the live cube results. According to my GNU rollout, if I remember correctly, B/18 is not the best cubeless play. This was and is something I do not really understand, what features makes the cube here so different for the three the plays.
Compared to 9/4, B/18 has going for it that it aims to make a (here) more valuable point, and that it leaves less good numbers: 6s, 2s and indirects vs 1s, 2s, 4s, and indirects. 21/16 leaves 4s and 6s but guess less returns than B/18.
In the alternative variant, your chances to make the 4 point have gone up, and you also have more ways to return hit after an ace by White, so 9/4 should increase in value relative to B/18. That said, I'd still have played B/18 here.
Finally, White must hit if he can, he cannot let Blue roll and make the prime. For example, after B/18, a 41 should be played 13/9 5/4*(!). GNU told me that. That looks strange but makes sense, and the blots can hurt Blue a lot after a dance. B/18 41 13/9 5/4* F is a strong cube and I believe a bare take for Blue.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.