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Another 3-away 4-away cube position

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 11 October 2011, at 6:10 p.m.

In Response To: Another 3-away 4-away cube position (rew)

but in this position you have some equity after a miss if you had not doubled.

Do you (does Blue)? That's a question.

Before Blue's roll here, White's pipcount is 58 and Blue is down 31 pips. If Blue misses the shot, Blue will down somewhere between 28 (roll 2-1) and 11 pips (roll 5-5) -- down about 23 pips on average.

Suppose Blue misses. Now White has a cube decision. White needs to roll 7 or better to get past the anchor (if it's still there). 16 numbers don't clear, so Blue should hit about 5 times in 36. If Blue doesn't hit, how often do you think Blue would win the race? Put Blue's two ways to win together for your best estimate of Blue's winning chances. Now, leading 3-away 4-away, what's Blue's take point on a nearly gammonless 2-cube? On a 4-cube?

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